The Swarm Signal flipped bearish this week. If you're treating that as a simple "sell now" instruction, you're misreading the data.
The Signal Is a State, Not a Prediction
The BEARISH label means a majority of tracked whale wallets are positioned short by dollar weight at this moment. Whale positioning is forward-looking. By the time a bearish signal has held for several consecutive readings, the move may already be half over.
Why Dollar Weight Changes Everything
Counting wallets is meaningless without sizing them. The Swarm weighted_long_pct is the core signal variable. A 38% weighted long reading means 62 cents of every tracked dollar is positioned short.
The Common Mistake
Retail traders see BEARISH and think: 'I'll short the open.' But whales who built positions two weeks ago have a cost basis 15% higher. Chasing the direction late is how you get liquidated.